Brent ends week at US$116.91, up over 6%, as Iran claims tanker hits and Singapore VLSFO hits US$963

Oil prices ended the week of 19 to 23 October 2026 sharply higher. Trading Economics reported that Brent rose to US$116.91 per barrel on 23 October, up 3.30% from the previous day, and said that on the week Brent crude prices rose more than 6%. Trading Economics also noted that Saudi Aramco had told staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely after a series of attacks.

CBS News, in its live coverage, cited the Associated Press reporting on Friday that the price of a barrel of Brent rose 3.5% to over US$117, having surged from less than US$97 at the start of October.

Several developments pushed prices up during the week:

• Iran's tanker claims. Marine Insight reported that Iranian state television said on Thursday 22 October, citing the navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), that seven oil tankers caught fire or were damaged overnight in the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by Iranian forces or striking naval mines. Marine Insight noted the incidents had not been independently confirmed. CBS reported that all of the ships were said to have been damaged on or after using the southern lanes near the Omani coast that the US has urged shippers to use.
• A halt claim on Friday. CBS reported that Iranian state TV claimed on 23 October, citing an unnamed source close to the IRGC Navy, that all movement of "non-compliant" vessels through the Strait had been completely halted.
• US denial. US President Donald Trump accused Iran of "making up fake hits, mines, and everything else" to drive up oil prices before the US midterm elections, CBS reported.
• Libya. OilPrice.com reported that Libya's National Oil Corporation said a pipeline feeding the Zawya export terminal was shut, cutting output at two fields. It also cited ING analysts saying an earlier estimated US$80 Brent average for the fourth quarter was "unattainable".

There were also offsetting moves. CBS reported that Saudi Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser said the East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, has gone from 2 million to 7 million barrels a day. Foreign ministers from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt met in Istanbul on Friday and urged the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Bunker fuel followed

Ship fuel tracked crude. Ship & Bunker shows Singapore VLSFO at US$963.00 per tonne on 23 October, up US$26.00 on the day, after US$937.00 on 22 October.

This is an update to our earlier post on 22 October, when Brent was around US$110, and our Hormuz traffic post.

For a fuel importing economy like Sri Lanka, a higher Brent price raises the cost of fuel imports and can, in time, feed into local fuel prices and transport costs. The rise in bunker prices matters too: container lines pass fuel costs to shippers through bunker adjustment factors and emergency surcharges.

The Iranian claims are unverified and disputed by Washington, but markets reacted to them. If shipping through the southern Hormuz lanes is seen as more dangerous, war risk insurance and tanker freight can rise further, even if physical oil flows continue.

Analyst views are not settled. Trading Economics' own model expects Brent at US$113.86 by the end of this quarter. That is a forecast, not a measured price, and it has moved sharply week to week.

1. Watch carrier surcharge notices. Ask your shipping line or forwarder for any bunker or emergency fuel surcharge changes announced for November sailings.
2. Price quotes with a validity date. Make sure freight and local delivery quotes state how long they are valid and whether fuel changes are passed through.
3. Review trucking contracts. If your inland transport contracts have a fuel clause, check how it is calculated. The container transport tool gives a reference for Colombo trucking costs.
4. Keep an eye on fuel prices locally. See our post on Sri Lanka's October fuel prices for the current level.
5. Avoid speculation. Oil moved several dollars a day this week. Plan on ranges, not single point forecasts.

This post summarises published reports. It is not financial advice.