President open to new IMF deal as fuel import bill heads for about US$6 billion in 2026

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said on 12 October that Sri Lanka is open to a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme once the current one ends, but that no decision has been made. He was speaking at a fireside chat opening the Sri Lanka Economic and Investment Summit 2026, organised by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, according to the Daily FT.

"We are at a mid-level and open about it," he said, as reported by the Daily FT. He said the government would use the remaining six months of the current arrangement to assess its options. The current programme is a 48-month Extended Fund Facility approved on 20 March 2023, worth about US$3 billion, and it runs until 19 March 2027, the Daily FT said.

Newswire reported that the President said any new deal should focus on growth while protecting the stability gained under the current programme. He said senior officials from the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank are discussing what form a future programme could take. He also said the government had neither decided to end its engagement with the Fund nor committed to a new programme.

This follows comments in Parliament on 8 October by Deputy Finance Minister Anil Jayantha. EconomyNext quoted him as saying discussions are "underway regarding the options beyond the current program", reflecting a shift towards "a more sustainable, long-term growth-targeted engagement model".

The President linked the decision to external shocks, especially the Middle East conflict. He warned that Sri Lanka's fuel import bill could reach about US$6 billion in 2026 if current trends continue. This is a projection, not an outcome.

The Daily FT quoted him as saying: "In 2025, the fuel import bill for the year was over $ 4.04 billion ($ 4,042 million) and during the first eight months of 2026 it has reached over $ 4.08 billion ($ 4,082 million)." Newswire's report of the same speech gave the 2025 figure as around US$4.4 billion, so the reports differ on last year's total.

Lanka News Web, citing Central Bank data on 9 October, reported that fuel import spending rose 61.6% to US$4,072.1 million in January to August 2026, from US$2,520.6 million in the same period of 2025. It also reported a US$126 million subsidy for Auto Diesel. Our earlier posts cover the October diesel price change and private suppliers cutting diesel releases.

Foreign exchange demand. A larger fuel bill means more dollars leaving the country. The President said reserves still need to reach the desired level, and Daily FT noted that the projected rise would add pressure on foreign exchange needs. Gross reserves slipped to US$6.85 billion in September, as covered in our 12 October post. The Central Bank's indicative US dollar spot rate was Rs. 330.85 on 12 October.

Policy direction after March 2027. Whether Sri Lanka signs a new IMF deal will shape tax, energy pricing and spending policy from 2027. The President said a decision would depend on the state of the economy, the strength of reserves and how far the country could withstand further external shocks.

Costs for traders. Fuel feeds into freight, power and transport costs across the supply chain. Lanka News Web noted that diesel prices affect public transport, freight and agriculture.

• Track the monthly Central Bank external sector data for fuel import spending and reserves, as both feed into rupee movements.
• Review how fuel and exchange rate changes are handled in your freight, haulage and supply contracts.
• Watch for official statements on the IMF programme over the next six months, as a new arrangement could bring policy changes for 2027.
• Check fuel surcharges on local transport quotes when the CPC announces monthly price revisions.