Air cargo demand up 4.4% in August as rates firm ahead of peak season

Air cargo demand kept growing in August while airlines held capacity flat, and rates have started to firm ahead of the year-end peak.

IATA, August 2026 data. In a release dated 29 September 2026, IATA reported that global air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), rose 4.4% year on year in August. Capacity (ACTK) fell 0.1%. The global load factor rose 2.0 percentage points to 46.0%. International demand grew 5.3% with capacity up 0.1%.

All regions grew. North American carriers were strongest at 6.6%, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (5.1%), Asia-Pacific (4.3%), Europe (4.1%), Africa (3.0%) and the Middle East (1.0%). Asia-Pacific carriers reached a load factor of 48.6%.

The trade lane picture was split. Asia to North America grew 13.2%, Europe to Asia 3.1% and within Asia 6.1%. Lanes linked to the Gulf shrank: Middle East to Asia fell 11.0% (a sixth month of decline), Europe to Middle East fell 12.1% and Africa to Asia fell 11.9%. IATA said Gulf-linked corridors remained disrupted by the conflict in the Middle East.

IATA also reported that jet fuel prices rose 8.3% month on month in August and were 79.2% higher than a year earlier. Yields rose month on month for the first time since April. IATA chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen said strong demand and higher load factors helped airlines "recoup some of the exceptionally high fuel costs."

Xeneta, September 2026. Xeneta's monthly update, reported by AJOT and Beinsure on 1 October, said global air cargo volumes rose 6% year on year in September while capacity rose 2%, after being flat in July and August. Its dynamic load factor rose two points to 62%. The global average spot rate was US$3.10 per kg, up 27% year on year and 2% on August. Xeneta said spot rates into the Middle East from South Asia were 91% above late-February levels in the week of 21 to 27 September.

On contracts, Xeneta said 60% of new agreements starting in the third quarter ran for three months or less, compared with 25% a year earlier. Xeneta's Niall van de Wouw said: "A one-year deal without any adjustment mechanism is becoming more the exception than the rule."

TAC Index, early October. Air Cargo News reported on 6 October that the Baltic Air Freight Index, calculated by TAC, rose 5% in the seven days to 5 October and was 25.5% higher than a year earlier. TAC said rates were still "far from keeping pace yet with surging jet fuel prices", which it put at more than 100% up on a year ago. TAC also noted that India spot rates eased slightly over the week but overall India rates were a little higher again.

E-commerce. Xeneta reported that China's low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell 40% year on year in August, after a 25% fall in July, linking this to the EU's 3 euro per item customs duty introduced on 1 July. Exports to the US rose 17% in August, recovering from the removal of the US de minimis threshold in 2025.

For Sri Lankan air shippers, the main signals are:

• Rates are rising into peak season. Both TAC and Xeneta show rates firming from September into October, and IATA reports yields rising again. Garment, perishable and spare-parts shippers booking for November and December should expect firmer quotes.
• Fuel is the big cost driver. IATA and TAC both report jet fuel far above last year. Fuel surcharges on airway bills tend to follow these moves.
• Routes via the Gulf remain weak. Shippers whose cargo connects through Gulf hubs should note that IATA's figures show Middle East lanes still contracting, and Xeneta shows South Asia to Middle East rates well above February levels. Routings and transit times may vary.
• Short contracts are now normal. With most new deals running three months or less, forwarders and shippers in Colombo are likely to see more frequent rate reviews.

For background on capacity at Bandaranaike International Airport, see our earlier post.

1. Ask your forwarder for all-in quotes that show the fuel surcharge separately, and check how often it is revised.
2. Book peak-season space early, especially for November and December shipments to Europe and the US.
3. Compare routings via Gulf hubs with options via Asian hubs for transit time and reliability.
4. If you sign a contract, ask whether it includes an adjustment mechanism for fuel or market rates.
5. Use our CBM calculator to check chargeable weight before you book.