Global news that moves freight: oil and bunker prices, container and air freight rates, wars and chokepoints such as Hormuz, the Red Sea and Suez, tariffs and carbon rules, and what each means for Sri Lankan trade.
Trade watch
Updated 7 October 2026. Each figure links to its source.
Brent crude
US$100.81 per barrel
▲+3.0% on the month
Near US$100 as Hormuz tanker attacks continue; EIA sees US$105 in Q4
IATA says August air cargo demand rose 4.4% with capacity flat. Xeneta puts September spot rates at US$3.10/kg, up 27%, and TAC's index rose 5% in the week to 5 October.
Sea-Intelligence says about 3 million TEU is stuck in delays at Asian ports after typhoons hit Shanghai and Ningbo, with recovery taking 7 to 10 months. Intra-Asia rates are at records.
With EU ETS at full coverage in 2026, Maersk and ONE reset emissions surcharges from 1 October, while IMO talks on a global carbon price stalled in September and move to December.
Gemini, COSCO, MSC and now the Premier Alliance are moving Asia-Europe services back through Suez, while schedule reliability fell to 49.9% in August. Escorts in the Red Sea remain stretched.
BIMCO expects fleet capacity to grow 4.6% in 2026 and 9% in 2027, with an orderbook over 14 million teu, about 42% of the fleet. A full Suez return would free even more ships.
Drewry's index slipped 1% to US$4,434 per 40ft on 1 October and the SCFI eased to 3,662 points. Carriers plan FAK rises for late October, but blank sailings are low and Suez capacity is growing.
Brent traded around US$101 on 5 October as Hormuz tanker attacks continued. OPEC+ held November output, and the EIA now sees Brent at US$105 in Q4 2026.