Brent closes at US$104 as Hormuz tanker attacks rise; CPC says local prices hold in October

Oil prices jumped again on 8 October 2026 as attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz picked up. This is an update to our earlier post on oil near US$100.

Prices. NBC News reported that Brent crude closed at US$104.28 a barrel on 8 October, up 4%, after nearly reaching US$106. US crude (WTI) closed at US$91.49, up 3.6%. NBC also reported that diesel futures rose 6% in European trading. Oilprice.com, writing earlier in the day, put Brent at US$105.02, up about 4.81% from Wednesday's close.

Hormuz. Oilprice.com said Reuters, citing a US Navy-led information outlet, reported a dozen attacks between 28 September and 2 October, and that Kpler data showed tanker traffic through Hormuz on Tuesday at its lowest since late July. NBC News, citing MarineTraffic, reported that traffic averaged fewer than 23 ships a day from 28 September to Sunday, against hundreds a day before the war. ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes told Oilprice.com that "producers appear to be willing to take the risk of their vessels being damaged", because they have no other export routes.

Other factors. NBC reported that US President Trump said the US would not resume strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterm elections, but that markets largely ignored the pledge. Oilprice.com said US Gulf Coast operators were shutting in production ahead of an approaching storm, and NBC reported that Hurricane Isaias led major oil companies to suspend work at several Gulf of Mexico rigs.

Forecasts. NBC reported that Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities at Bank of America, said Brent could trade between US$95 and US$120 if disruptions last through the end of the year. This is a forecast, not a certainty.

Sri Lanka. The day before the jump, the Daily FT reported on 7 October that Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) Chairman D.J. Rajakaruna said current fuel prices can be maintained until the end of October, and that two extra fuel shipments were being expedited as a precaution. "There is no issue with fuel stocks," he said, blaming local shortages mainly on other fuel companies cutting supplies to their stations. On 8 October the Daily FT reported that Energy Minister Anura Karunathilaka said the government would seek legal advice and could act under the Petroleum Act if private suppliers keep restricting fuel to filling stations. The report said CPC's share of the local market has risen to about 77% to 80%. Pump prices are covered in our post on diesel at Rs. 392.

Fuel is a large part of freight costs. Higher crude and diesel prices feed into ship bunker costs, carrier fuel surcharges and air cargo rates, often with a delay of a few weeks.

For Sri Lankan traders, CPC's statement offers some short-term certainty on local pump prices for October. But it was made before the 8 October jump, and the Rs. 70 diesel subsidy reported by the Daily FT is for three months. A lasting rise in crude would put pressure on prices after October, and on lorry and container transport rates that track diesel.

Patchy supply at private filling stations can also delay trucks moving containers to and from the port.

• Ask your forwarder and shipping lines about any change to bunker or emergency fuel surcharges for November sailings.
• Build fuel cost changes into quotations with validity past October, rather than assuming current prices will hold.
• Ask your hauliers whether they have secure fuel supply, and agree in advance how any diesel price change will be passed on.
• Compare inland container transport costs with our container transport tool.
• Follow CPC's monthly price announcement at the start of November.